Aurora's Wings Clipped?

Aurora's Wings Clipped?

Colonel Ernest Cable OMM, CD (Retired)

In May 1980 the Canadian Forces (CF) took delivery of the first
CP-140 Aurora maritime patrol aircraft; the 18th and last CP-140 was
delivered in August 1981. The Aurora is derived from the U.S Navy's Lockheed
P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft from which it inherits its long range
and endurance. Similarly, the Aurora inherited its 1970's state-of-the art
sensors from the Lockheed S-3A Viking, the U.S. Navy's carrier borne
submarine hunter. As the name "Aurora" implies, the CP-140 marked a new dawn
in the CF's capabilities in maritime and arctic surveillance and especially
anti-submarine warfare (ASW).

The Aurora was exceptionally successful in the ASW role and, in
fact, was the envy of our NATO allies. The intelligence gained about foreign
submarines operating in the Labrador and Sargasso Seas off Canada's coasts
contributed to the recognized maritime picture which was the maritime
equivalent of the DEW Line in the defence of North America. The Aurora's
similar contribution to the NATO alliance signaled Canada as a player on the
world's stage and helped Canada to earn a seat at international forums where
it could influence decisions affecting the future of the western world. 

A National Surveillance Vehicle

With the thankful demise of the Cold War, the Aurora's superb
surveillance and information processing capabilities were directed more
toward domestic surveillance and projecting Canada's interests abroad.
Aurora detachments have operated over the Adriatic Sea and the Persian Gulf
as part of a coalition force enforcing U.N. sanctions in regional conflicts.
In partnership with NATO and coalition forces Auroras have provided
strategic surveillance; playing a key role in the surveillance of surface
traffic in belligerents' littoral waters, interdicting vessels smuggling
illegal weapons and deterring the potential movement of warring factions'
warships from their harbours. Auroras have also conducted NATO surveillance
missions against terrorists, smugglers and illegal immigrants. In fact,
their presence was so effective that insurance rates for merchant ships
against the risk of piracy were reduced.

The Aurora is Canada's only aircraft capable of surveillance,
reconnaissance and intelligence gathering in the arctic. In the early 1980's
when radioactive debris from the disintegrated Soviet Cosmos satellite was
strewn across Canada's remote North West Territories the Aurora was the
primary search vehicle, to help locate the debris.  Similarly, when national
intelligence sources had indications that Soviet ice stations were drifting
through the Canadian arctic area of responsibility, Auroras were tasked to
locate and track the stations and gather further intelligence on ice
stations' activities. In 1995, an Aurora on patrol over the Arctic Ocean
photographed debris on the permanent ice pack from a ballistic missile fired
from a Russian nuclear powered submarine, only 350 kilometers north of
Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.

On the domestic scene, Auroras have provided yeoman support to other federal
government departments. The Auroras have dedicated thousands of hours to the
RCMP which were used to interdict vessels carrying literally hundreds of
tons of illicit drugs destined for the remote coastlines of the Atlantic
Provinces and British Columbia. On Department of Fisheries' patrols Auroras
were instrumental in detecting illegal activities in our coveted fishing
grounds that resulted in the perpetrators being successfully prosecuted
before the international courts; similarly, Auroras have been instrumental
in detecting illegal driftnet fishing in the North Pacific. Eighty five
percent of marine pollution violations are reported to Environment Canada by
Auroras. In the same vein, Auroras have provided advance warning to Citizen
and Immigration Canada of  illegal immigrants attempting to clandestinely
land on both our east and west coasts.

Modernization Program

The Aurora proved to be a very busy and versatile national strategic
surveillance asset during both the Cold War and post Cold War eras. During
the Aurora acquisition process a fleet sizing study indicated that 24
aircraft would be required for all the tasks the government wanted
performed. However, the number of Auroras was unilaterally reduced to 18 by
the Trudeau government but there was no commensurate reduction in tasks to
be performed. Consequently, the Aurora was required to fly at twice the rate
of similar P-3C aircraft flown by other nations resulting in the Aurora
reaching its 20,000 hour estimated life expectancy sooner than planned.

  However, by the mid-1990's, airframe fatigue upon which the
estimated life expectancy is based was superseded by a more pressing
problem. The Aurora's sensors were obsolescing and becoming ineffective
against the latest maritime targets and most of the original equipment
manufacturers were no longer providing spares or repair services for the 20
year old electronics. To extend the viability of its only national strategic
surveillance aircraft Air Command, in 1998, embarked on an Aurora
modernization program to replace most of the Aurora's avionics and sensors
with state-of-the-art systems. The program would not only restore the
aircraft's impressive maritime capabilities but also provide a new dimension
in surveillance, reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering over land. The
AIMP Aurora would be a truly national strategic surveillance aircraft
capable of operating over land or sea anywhere in the world. Ideally, the
new avionics and sensors should have been installed while each Aurora
underwent its regularly scheduled third line inspection and repair routine
under an omnibus Aurora life extension program. But, because of fiscal
considerations the government decided on a phased approach known as the
Aurora Incremental Modernization Program (AIMP). The AIMP program is made up
of twenty-three separate individual projects grouped into four blocks. The
blocks are currently being implemented in succession, requiring each
aircraft to be processed through the IMP contractor's plant in Halifax four
times. Currently, up to five aircraft are under modification by IMP at any
one time. Initially, the estimated cost of the modernization program was
approximately one billion dollars.

The AIMP program was originally scheduled for completion in 2008. However,
because of design and prototype testing challenges AIMP is now scheduled to
finish in 2012 and the total cost has escalated to just under1.5 billion
dollars. As of writing this article (Nov 07), Block 1 which consisted of a
number of legacy projects to address regulatory and compliancy deficiencies
has been completed. Canadian Marconi Corporation and Thales Systems Canada
have completed engineering for the Block 2 Navigation and Flight Instrument
Modernization Project (NFIMP) and the Communication Management System (CMS),
respectively; all the NFIMP and CMS avionics have been purchased for 18
aircraft and IMP has completed installation for Block 2 avionics on five
aircraft with succeeding aircraft to follow.  General Dynamics Canada has
completed the engineering design for the Block 3 Data Management System
(DMS) with the initial DMS avionics having been purchased for prototyping in
the first aircraft. IMP estimates the final DMS installation phase will
occur in the 2009 - 2012 timeframe with the last AIMP Aurora being
operational in 2013. To minimize cost and expedite the schedule, all of the
Block 3 Electronic Support Measures (ESM) and acoustic detection system
electronics for the entire AIMP program have been delivered.

It is generally acknowledged that the AIMP program will give the Aurora a
maritime, arctic and overland surveillance capability second to none and be
operationally effective for the next two decades. The arctic and overland
surveillance capabilities are particularly germane as the government has
placed increased emphasis on demonstrating a national presence in the
Canadian Arctic Archipelago and exercising sovereignty over the North West
Passage, a likely emerging shipping route through the arctic if the
predicted affects global warming come to fruition. If Canada is to enforce
sovereignty over its debated jurisdiction of the North West Passage it will
require the capability to not only exercise a national presence but also to
monitor shipping navigating the arctic passage. Currently, the AIMP Aurora
is Canada's only surveillance platform capable of providing these functions
year-round in the arctic.  Similarly, the AIMP Aurora's overland
capabilities can relieve Canada of reliance on its allies to provide
strategic surveillance for its expeditionary forces in land-locked regional
conflicts such as Afghanistan. 

Structural Corrosion

However, despite its impressive surveillance capabilities the future of the
AIMP Aurora is far from certain. As a result of the routinely scheduled
third line inspection and repair activity corrosion was found to have
compromised the structural integrity of the Aurora's wings and horizontal
stabilizer. In 2000, a follow on structural assessment program, co-shared
with Norway and other nations that operate P-3C aircraft confirmed a
P-3C/Aurora fleet-wide corrosion problem and estimated that the Aurora would
be safe to fly until only 2012-2015. An Aurora Service Life Extension
Program (ASLEP) would be required to extend the life of the Aurora until at
least 2025, at a cost estimated at 25 million dollars per aircraft or 450
million dollars for the fleet. Looking for the best investment value for the
two billion dollars required for AIMP and ASLEP programs, Air Command
investigated joining the U.S. Navy's P-8 Poseidon Multi-purpose Maritime
Aircraft (MMA) program to replace its aging P-3C's. However, the option was
rejected in 2005 as the P-8 would not be available to Canada until 2015 -
2020 and would cost significantly more than the near two billion dollars for
AIMP/ASLEP. 

In October 2007, the government suspended the ASLEP program and
Block 3 of the AIMP program until DND's fiscal commitments could be
re-examined. Several years ago as part of a fiscal reduction measure Air
Command disbanded three squadrons to eliminate associated personnel and
operating costs. These savings were quickly consumed by the acquisition of
new C-17 and C-130J transport aircraft and H-47 Chinook heavy-lift
helicopters to support Canada's expeditionary forces in Afghanistan. This
forced a fiscal review to assess the priority and affordability of all
capital programs, including AIMP/ASLEP and their associated operations and
maintenance costs. However, meaningful savings in the AIMP program will be
difficult to realize. Funds for the non-recurring design and engineering
costs and the acquisition of a large percentage of the AIMP electronics have
already been spent. DND has already paid close to a billion dollars of the
1.5 billion dollar AIMP program. The only significant remaining cost is
installation of the electronics in each of the Aurora airframes to be
modernized by IMP. 

DND is faced with the conundrum of having spent close to a billion dollars,
to date,  on AIMP to make the Aurora's sensors viable until 2025; but,
belatedly found that the Aurora airframe will be airworthy only until the
2012-2015 timeframe. One obvious solution to synchronize the life
expectancies of the Aurora's electronics and airframe is to approve the
ASLEP program with its estimated 450 million dollar cost. Another less
costly option being considered is to reduce the Aurora fleet size and
implement AIMP/ASLEP in only 12-16 aircraft. Another option is the
acquisition of Uninhabited Air Vehicles (UAV's) to either replace or
supplement a reduced size Aurora fleet.

Options

Advocates claim that UAV's are capable Intelligence, Surveillance and
Reconnaissance (ISR) vehicles and that the personnel and operations costs
are significantly less than for manned aircraft. The entire UAV versus
Aurora debate merits a separate paper. But, in short, the cost of any UAV
depends on the range and altitude at which it is required to operate and the
sophistication of the surveillance sensors to be employed. Although the more
capable UAV's are able to conduct surveillance missions for periods of up to
24 hours, trials have indicated that UAV's, at this point in their
evolution, have difficulty coping with severe winter weather over the North
Atlantic and North Pacific and unlike the Aurora, have yet to demonstrate
any capability in the arctic. UAV's are slower (250 knots/hour) and would
have significantly greater reaction times to the outer reaches of Canada's
Exclusive Economic Zone and even longer to Canada's arctic regions. Unlike
the Aurora, UAV's have no underwater surveillance capability. But compared
to the Aurora, the UAV's greatest disadvantage is its inability to
spontaneously provide a wide range of reactions to the targets of interest
it detects and to assume an on-scene command and control role with
cooperating forces. UAV mission flexibility, the ability to re-task in
flight, is dependant upon sophisticated guidance and control links to
geo-synchronous satellites. Additionally, satellites supporting UAV
operations require sufficient bandwidth to down link surveillance imagery to
a ground station for real-time analysis. UAV cost-benefit analyses will have
to include the acquisition and operation of a compatible Canadian
satellite(s) or the user fees to access allies' satellites with the required
specialized capabilities.

Surveillance

Surveillance is the very essence of Canada's ability to exercise sovereignty
over its areas of national interest. As a sovereign nation Canada requires
effective surveillance to determine who is entering its territorial waters,
including the arctic; who is operating in its exclusive economic zones; and
any activities that violate Canadian law or are contrary to the national
well-being. Because Canada's coastlines are not only sparsely populated but
are also the longest in the world, aerial surveillance is the only effective
means to monitor domestic and foreign activities along our coasts.
Similarly, Canada requires a surveillance capability to protect its rich
fish stocks and petroleum and mineral reserves on its world's largest
continental shelf and its vast arctic region. When surveillance patrols
detect skeptical activities Canada must have a reliable and responsive means
to investigate those activities and where necessary initiate remedial action
against violators of Canadian sovereignty. 

DND has long acknowledged that the Aurora is Canada's only strategic
surveillance aircraft and that no other aircraft in Air Command's inventory
has the AIMP Aurora's unique surveillance or command and control
capabilities over both land and sea. Any reduction in capability to conduct
surveillance and react to regulatory violations will signal that Canada
takes its jurisdiction over its areas of national interest for granted and
is ill prepared to detect challenges to its sovereignty. Furthermore, Aurora
participation in NATO surveillance operations has demonstrated that Canada
is a resolute contributor to world stability. By adequately funding its
domestic and expeditionary surveillance needs Canada will signal its
intentions to enforce its national regulations and its willingness to aid in
the resolution of regional conflicts. Determining an adequate funding level
is complicated by the fact that the government has yet to define how much
surveillance is enough. Increasing surveillance in the arctic while
maintaining current levels on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts portend a
greater demand for Aurora surveillance than is currently provided.
Additionally, Canada can anticipate surveillance requests from the
international community to aid in the resolution of regional conflicts.

The U.S. Navy has addressed its expanding surveillance requirements
by developing a world-wide Broad Area Maritime Surveillance (BAMS)
capability. The P-8 MMA and UAV's are two of the fundamental components of
BAMS. The UAV's will operate from five locations around the globe to provide
persistent (up to 30 hours continuously) surveillance over ocean areas and
littoral waters of interest; while the P-8's will fly from the current U.S.
Navy deployment air bases around the world to provide the maritime patrol
and response roles for targets of interest, including underwater
surveillance.  Canada has the option of meeting its future surveillance
needs by following Australia's lead and joining the BAMS program. To focus
on its areas of national interest Canada would require its own aircraft with
the capabilities of the AIMP Aurora and a small fleet of suitable UAV's. If,
as a result of the fiscal review, the government decides to clip the
Aurora's wings by not pursuing Block 3 of the AIMP program and some form of
ASLEP program, then a new aircraft such as the P-8 would be required.

Conclusion

The Canadian government appears to have two options to maintain a
national surveillance capability. It can continue with the AIMP program and
take advantage of the near billion dollars already spent and commit to a
structural life extension program to keep the Aurora viable until 2025. This
option will allow Canada to continue with its independent surveillance
capability or join U.S. Navy BAMS program; but a new aircraft will be
required in the 2025 timeframe. Or, it can cancel the AIMP program, absorb
the near billion dollars already expended, pay the cancellation penalties
and attempt to stretch the Aurora's life expectancy to the 2015 - 2020
timeframe. This has the advantage of avoiding the near billion dollar cost
to complete the remainder of the AIMP and ASLEP programs and applying the
savings to a new aircraft such as the U.S. Navy's P-8 when it is available.
The new aircraft would be BAMS compatible and have a life expectancy until
at least 2045.  Regardless of the decision taken, Canada cannot afford to
have a surveillance gap between the current Aurora capability and a
successor capability. The lack of surveillance over national areas of
interest during a gapped period would not only jeopardize Canadian
sovereignty but also result in a loss of surveillance expertise.