Mischief Reef

The debate about the nature of China's march to superpower status and the role of the People's Liberation Army (Navy) (PLA(N)) may hinge upon what happens in the South China Sea. There are those analysts who say that China is an emerging superpower with a navy designed and dedicated to coastal defence to protect the coastal area of China where the bulk of its industrial infrastructure and population rests. And then there are those who say that China is an emerging superpower that wants to develop a "blue water" navy to dominate Asia and replace the United States as the regional superpower. The clue to solving this mystery may centre upon the Spratly Islands, and one key piece of disputed real estate, Mischief Reef. The reef may be the "stepping stone" China needs to get regional maritime superiority, but if it leaps too quickly, then the reef could be China's Waterloo.

The Spratly Islands in the South China Sea are one of the world's potential flash points between states. The Spratlys comprises an area of some 250,000 square kilometers, and includes some 200 or so islands and outcrops, sometimes only visible at low tide, and some only large enough for one person to stand on at once. This bland geographic description fails to explain that the Spratlys are surrounded by very rich fishing grounds and that the area may be home to substantial oil and natural gas deposits highly valued by countries within the region. Thus, China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines all have competing claims and interests in several of these small, but potentially economically lucrative islands and outcrops.

Additionally, the Spratly Islands are also valued for their valuable strategic location in the South China Sea where they straddle the main sea route from the Arabian Gulf to Northeast Asia. One quarter of the worlds seaborne trade travels through the strategic Spratly Island chain. Whoever controls the Spratlys could use them as a base of operations to cut the strategic lines of communication and trade between the Persian Gulf and Northeast Asia. Thus, China, Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, and the United States have strategic interests in the freedom of navigation past and through these small but strategically valuable islands and outcrops.

China, a leading competitor for the Spratly chain and emerging superpower, has shown a willingness to use force to achieve its objective and reel in the bulk of the Spratly chain and, indeed, the entire South China Sea. To date China has occupied ten islands or outcrops in the Spratly Islands. In 1974, China also seized the neighbouring Parcel Island chain from Vietnam in a firefight, and then produced maps showing the South China Sea as a virtual "Chinese lake". Some years later, in 1988, China attacked and sank three Vietnamese naval vessels in a small sea battle over the Spratly Islands. In March 1994, the PLA(N) set up an early warning radar base on Fiery Cross Reef in the eastern area of the disputed Spratly chain. Lastly, in 1995 China, quietly occupied Mischief Reef, an island claimed by the Philippines and well within the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

Once occupied, despite the Philippines' demands for China's withdrawal, the PLA(N) began to construct facilities on Mischief Reef that they claimed were shelters for fisherman. These fishing shelters, as reported in the February 28, 1999, Ottawa Sun and numerous BBC World News reports, are now three stories high, include satellite dishes, communications antenae, anti-aircraft emplacements, a helicopter landing pad, and wharfs capable of handling 3-4000 ton vessels. A PLA(N) survey ship and a supply or landing ship are now on station at Mischief Reef almost all the time.

The facilities seem strangely inappropriate for fishing vessels but would provide small PLA(N) frigates with a forward operating base near the eastern edge of the disputed Spratly Islands for a nation that wants to develop a "blue water" presence in the Pacific. Mischief Reef is only 300 kilometers from the Philippines Island of Palawan, and over 1000 kilometers from mainland China. A move to turn the South China Sea into a "Chinese lake" begs the question of just how oriented China and the PLA(N) are towards coastal defence.

Furthermore, China's leap to the Philippines' back door step could ignite a small regional conflict and lead to a larger war with the Philippines protector and former colonial master, the United States. The Chinese started their "creep and seizure" campaign in the Philippines' area of the contested Spratlys when the Philippines ended American leases on valuable Philippine bases, and American-Philippine relations took on a chill. In the year Mischief Reef was occupied by the PLA, the United States stopped joint exercises with the Philippines, and so it is likely that the Chinese decided to probe the region looking for weakness.

Throughout the Mischief Reef dispute, and despite the United States-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, the Americans have maintained their neutrality. However, with negotiations over a new United States-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) taking on a look of a "done deal". one month before it was actually signed, the Philippines' Secretary of Defense, Orlando Mercado, told the March 10, 1999, edition of The Australian that, "I would welcome an exercise in our waters off Palawan", a clear reference to Mischief Reef. It is clear that the Philippines interest in a new arrangement with the Americans and the April agreement to a new Visiting Forces Agreement is linked to their fears of Chinese seizures of off shore islands and out crops, and to dragging the Americans into the dispute with China. As for the People's Republic, on April 1, 1999, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi, in reacting to a Philippines request to let the world court settle the issue said, "China holds irrefutable sovereignty over the Nansha (Spratly) Islands and adjacent waters." Whether, the United States can maintain its neutrality, without loss of Southeast Asian confidence is open to question. The problem has only compounded according to a April 29, 1999, BBC World News report with the discovery of sunken treasure from ancient Chinese ships found in the waters off of Brunei which has furthered China's claims that the South China Sea historically belongs to China. The Philippines government has demonstrated through recent actions that they intend on pushing the issue.

In late March, 1999, the Philippines announced that they would continue overflight inspections of Chinese activity of Mischief Reef. Since then the Philippines escalated the situation by attempting to chase away or arrest Chinese fishermen off another disputed area in the South China Sea, Scarborough Shoal, only 220 Kilometers from the main Philippine Island of Luzon, on May 23, 1999. According to a May 25, 1999, CNN World News report, in the attempted eviction/arrest, the Chinese crew claims it was rammed by a Philippines patrol vessel three times, resulting in the loss of the Chinese fishing vessel. The Chinese protested the Philippines alleged ramming. Then on May 30, 1999, the Manila Times reported that the Philippines was engaged in covert operations in the Spratly Islands, and making preparations to construct fortifications on islands and outcrops to counter the Chinese presence on Mischief Reef. The Manila Times also confirm an early report that a Philippines navy supply vessel, Sierre Madre had ran aground in the Spratlys and was passed by two suspected Chinese warships with their "guns trained" on the helpless Philippino vessel.

Lastly, on June 1, 1999, China in a move sure to heighten an already tense situation announced a two month fishing ban on the South China Sea in the disputed Spratly Islands. The unilateral act by China will effect 1.2 million people in the region directly and millions more indirectly, and could push some countries to take extraordinary measures to protect their fisheries interests in the disputed region. The Commander of the Philippines' Navy, Admiral Eduardo Santos, was reported on June 3, 1999, by Stratfor to have said, "The territory is ours since it belongs to our exclusive economic zoneĽ", and thus the Philippines would fish the area exclusively.

With both sides seemingly unwilling to back down, sooner or later Mischief Reef will become a battle ground. Whether or not the United States will be forced into the equation is open to question. What appears not to be in doubt is China's drive towards "blue water" and its goal of replacing the United States as the dominant power in Asia. If the United States allows the Chinese creep out of Mischief Reef and encroach upon the Philippines any more, American allies in Asia may lose heart, and the United States may lose its Asian dominance. Mischief Reef could be the determining factor in the future of both China and the United States, and it could be the site of the next major Asian sea battle.

Joe Varner is a Contributing Editor to Maritime Affairs specializing in Asia-Pacific security issues.